Mideast perceptions of roles played by global and regional powers

The tumult that has rocked the Arab world contributed to dramatic changes in the Arab public’s attitudes towards important global and regional powers.

This is one of the findings of a recent Zogby Research Services (ZRS) poll of over 7,000 adults in six Arab countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq), Turkey and Iran.

The wide-ranging study, prepared for the annual Sir Bani Yas Forum, covered a number of topics asking respondents to identify: obstacles to stability and sources of the conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen; the causes of extremism; how best to deal with the threat of extremism.

While all warrant examination, the shake up in the region’s positive and negative perceptions of the roles played by global and local powers is both fascinating and consequential.

In face-to-face interviews conducted in late September-early October, ZRS found that Saudi Arabia is in an exceptionally strong position in the Arab world, while favourable attitudes towards Iran and Turkey continue to decline.

These ratings and the mixed reviews given to the US and Russia define the turn-about that has occurred in recent years.

In 2006, just one decade ago, the attention of most Arabs was focused on the continuing US war in Iraq and the US support for Israel’s destructive assault on Lebanon and its occupation policies in the West Bank and Gaza.

In that context, not surprisingly, attitudes towards the US were at their lowest point.

With then Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad leading a war of words not only against the US and Israel, but also the weak Arab response to both, favourable attitudes towards Iran were on the rise region-wide, reaching over 70 per cent in most Arab countries — including over 85 per cent in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

In 2009, then Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan created a sensation with his televised public rebuke of Israeli president Shimon Peres. 

That behaviour brought about a spike in the Arab world’s favourable assessment of Erdogan and Turkey.

After the Turks broke relations with Israel and continued to publicly challenge its policies, their favourable ratings rose even higher. 

Contributing to the Arab world’s positive assessment of Turkey were that country’s economic progress and what appeared to be its successful democratic experience.

Much has changed in the past decade.

Iran’s meddlesome regional role has angered many Arabs, causing a steep and steady decline in its ratings.

The “nail in the coffin” of Iran’s regional standing was its support for the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad.

Just how precipitous this decline has been can be seen by looking at the changes that occurred in Egypt and Saudi Arabia — dropping from almost nine in ten who had a favourable rating of Iran in 2006 to less than one in ten in 2016.

Even Lebanon, which continued to rate Iran favourably throughout the last decade, has now joined the rest of the Arab world in giving that country a net negative rating.

In no Arab country does a majority see Iran as playing a positive role in the region or consider it important to have good relations with the government in Tehran.

The Arabs’ assessment of Turkey has also taken a hit, largely owing to that country’s bungling efforts to claim a regional leadership role and its troubling drift towards authoritarianism.

Once held in high esteem in every Arab country, now only Jordan and Lebanon give Turkey a net favourable rating and only Jordan and Saudi Arabia see Turkey playing a constructive regional role.

While attitudes towards Turkey and Iran are in decline across the region, Saudi Arabia continues to receive the highest favourable ratings in all Arab countries and Turkey.

Majorities in all the Arab countries also see the kingdom contributing to peace and stability and view having good relations with Saudi Arabia as important — with a majority of Iranians also favouring good relations with the kingdom.

Both of the major global powers covered in this survey, the United States and Russia, fare quite poorly.

They each receive a net positive rating in only one country — the US in Lebanon and Russia in Iran.

Neither the US nor Russia is seen as promoting peace and stability, and both receive mixed reviews in response to the question about the importance of having good relations with them — the US scores high in just Lebanon, Jordan and the UAE, while only Egypt, Lebanon and Iran want good ties with Russia.

Iraq is the one country where the US scores lowest in all areas. Only 6 per cent of Iraqis view the US favourably and see it contributing to peace and stability in the Middle East, and only 16 per cent of Iraqis say that it is important for their country to have good relations with the US.

It is interesting to note the countries where attitudes towards the US actually improved (Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan).

The cause appears to be the administration’s lighter regional footprint.

Despite frequently heard complaints about the lack of US leadership, this concern is barely mentioned when respondents were asked about the sources of conflict and instability in hot spots, like Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen.

That is the positive take-away for US policymakers.

On the negative side, it is very clear that Arab attitudes towards the US are still deeply affected by the long, bloody and largely failed war in Iraq, and the lack of trust in the US as an “honest broker”.

As a result, far from wanting more US leadership and involvement in regional conflicts, respondents in all eight countries see the US role, more often than not, as a source of problems, to be avoided.