Despite Gaza war, Bab Al Mandeb crisis, experts foresee potential fuel price drop next month

AMMAN — Despite the ongoing war in Gaza and the crisis in the Bab Al Mandeb Strait, experts suggest that fuel prices might decrease next month. 

“The price of 90-octane gasoline has decreased by 2.4 per cent, equivalent to 22 fils. The price of 95-octane gasoline has decreased by 1.8 per cent, equivalent to 20 fils. Diesel has decreased by 3 per cent, equivalent to 22 fils. These numbers might decrease even more next month due to the geopolitical events happening globally,” said Hisham Aqel, an energy expert who spoke to The Jordan Times. 

It is worth noting that a decision is still pending from the pricing committee at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, according to Aqel. 

Aqel added that in the next ten days, there may be changes in prices, particularly with the worsening crisis in the Bab Al Mandeb Strait, which could have a slight impact on oil prices. However, he emphasised that on a local level, there would be no significant effect as the supply lines are close to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. 

“American production of petroleum derivatives has increased significantly,” noted Aqel. 

In addition, Aqel highlighted that OPEC’s members do not fully support the decision to decrease production, which will also influences production and, therefore, the prices of petroleum derivatives. 

Meanwhile, Amer Shobaki, another energy expert, told The Jordan Times that he anticipates a decrease in petroleum prices for the next month in Jordan. 

“Despite the war in Gaza and the conflict in the Bab Al Mandeb Strait, petroleum derivatives are expected to decrease even more next month,” added Shobaki. 

He mentioned that the USA, Mexico, and Guana have all increased their petroleum production. Additionally, OPEC’s decision to lower production is currently optional for OPEC’s members, whereas it was mandatory initially. 

All these factors have contributed to “slow down” the impact of both conflicts in Gaza and Yemen. 

“One barrel of Brent is sold for almost $78, which will be reflected in reduced prices in the Jordanian market,” Shobaki added.