Tensions mount as Scotland goes its own way on virus lockdown

EDINBURGH — First independence. Then Brexit. Now Scotland's handling of the coronavirus outbreak has stirred up fresh tensions with the UK government, despite an initial unified approach.

The leader of the Scottish government, Nicola Sturgeon, has put clear water between Edinburgh and London by refusing to implement the same easing of lockdown measures.

At the weekend, she warned lives could be at risk if stay-at-home restrictions were lifted too soon, just before British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a plan for a gradual return to normality.

Johnson's ruling Conservatives have been criticised in the crisis, particularly for a lack of widespread testing and the supply of protective equipment for frontline workers.

The prime minister has also been questioned about his claim to have stopped the outbreak successfully, when more than 32,000 people have died -- the second-highest in the world.

But in Scotland, where figures released on Tuesday showed just under 2,000 deaths from nearly 14,000 positive tests, Sturgeon is perceived to be doing a good job.

A YouGov poll last week indicated 71 per cent of people were confident Sturgeon would make the right decision, compared to just 40 per cent for Johnson.

The approval rating comes on the back of indications of an increase in support for her Scottish National Party (SNP).

 'Russian roulette' 

The latest crack in fragile relations between the UK government and the devolved administration in Edinburgh mostly centres around messaging.

Until Sunday, the UK-wide advice to the public was "Stay at Home" to avoid transmitting the virus and stop the state-run National Health Service being overwhelmed with cases.

But Johnson changed the slogan to "Stay Alert" as he sketched out plans to open up the economy again to certain sectors, after passing the peak of the outbreak.

"I don't know what 'stay alert' means," Sturgeon told reporters at the weekend.

"If I say to you, my message now is stay alert and you say to me, but does that mean I stay at home or not, and I can't give you a straight answer, I am failing in my duty to be clear in terms of what I'm asking you to do."

She argued rates of transmission were still too high in Scotland and kept restrictions in place.

"Let me be very blunt about the consequences if we were to do that. People will die unnecessarily," she added, later saying she wouldn't play "Russian roulette" with lives.

The devolved administrations in Wales and Northern Ireland took her lead, leaving only England to start moves towards the reopening of schools, shops and other businesses.

But confusion reigns, with uncertainty about who should go back to work and when, what safety measures should be in place, and the exact guidance on what is allowed.

The situation is one of the clearest demonstrations since the devolved administrations were set up in the late 1990s of different parts of the UK treading a markedly different path.

The leader of Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru, Liz Saville Roberts, even referred to Johnson in parliament this week as "the prime minister of England".

But in Scotland, the stakes are high, with Sturgeon pushing hard for a new independence vote, six years after Scots voted by a majority of 55 per cent to keep the three-centuries-old political union with England.

Johnson has emphatically ruled that out, despite SNP claims Scotland's overwhelming support for remaining in the European Union had moved the goalposts in the constitutional arrangement.

Political capital? 

Chris Deerin, contributing editor for Scotland at the New Statesman magazine, said Sturgeon had won trust for remaining apolitical, cooperating closely with the UK government and "treating voters like grown-ups".

How much the SNP can turn the situation to its political advantage in the longer term is unclear, even as Scottish parliamentary elections approach next year.

Sturgeon is looking to consolidate her party's grip on power, and capitalise on indications of an increase in support for independence in recent months.

But Deerin said potential post-pandemic job losses and a lengthy economic downturn is likely to influence "those in the middle" in any future vote on going it alone.

"People may be nervous about moving ahead with independence," he told AFP.

"There has been a social coming together during the pandemic which may also affect the appetite for independence."

Marc Geddes, a lecturer in British politics at the University of Edinburgh, agreed.

"This crisis is also global in nature and the virus does not recognise borders," he said.

"This might well stem the tide for the independence movement because this pandemic requires close partnership and cooperation."