The Syrian-Iraqi border: Jordan’s heightened security risks amid regional escalation

With the intensification of Israeli strikes deep inside Lebanese territory, signs have emerged of a broader operational scope extending to the geographical corridor between Iraq and Syria. This development reflects Israel’s apparent aim to sever Hizbollah’s logistical lifelines and disrupt external supply routes. While Israeli activity in Syria has been a significant focus over the past months, the recent moves go beyond the traditional intelligence-based operations in areas dominated by Iran and Hizbollah, such as Damascus, Sayyida Zainab, Mezzeh, Qusayr, parts of Aleppo and the coastal region.

The operations now reaching Palmyra and the Iraqi border indicate a strategic shift toward dismantling the backbone of the “Axis of Resistance,” targeting the logistics corridor that supports Hizbollah and Iranian militias through Al-Bukamal. However, these actions seem to be steering toward a more direct confrontation with Iraqi factions, transforming the situation into a conflict involving Iraqi elements operating on Syrian soil.

This escalation suggests an expanded geographic scope and raises the likelihood of further intensification in the coming weeks. The conflict could escalate to include targeted strikes against Iraqi groups or their leaders, potentially opening a broader front in Iraq with significant security ramifications.

At the same time, Syrian territory is seeing large-scale escalation across multiple fronts and involving various parties, signalling the onset of a turbulent phase. Tribal factions in Al-Bukamal and Deir ez-Zor have launched intensified confrontations against Iranian-backed militias, pointing to efforts to establish a new reality in these strategically significant border areas.

Simultaneously, militant groups, most notably Daesh, are resurging in key areas, including the desert regions of Al-Sukhna, Palmyra in eastern Homs, and even southern Syria. Daesh’s targeted operations against Iranian-backed forces in these regions indicate that the coming escalation may not be confined to a single geographic area. Instead, it hints at the emergence of multiple actors vying to expand their influence over wider regions, especially border crossings, using the ongoing conflict to their advantage.

The likelihood of an expanded geographic confrontation in the coming weeks seems inevitable. Israel’s operations align with its broader strategy of addressing threats across multiple fronts, implemented gradually and based on priority and geographic proximity. The continued deepening of these operations near Jordan, the West Bank and Syria implicitly heightens security risks and raises the potential for widespread instability.

The evolving conflict, marked by the involvement of various actors and the resurgence of ISIS, could lead to significant escalations targeting multiple entities and locations, particularly along borders. If the confrontations between these parties intensify, the risk of border breaches or reconfiguration of control over border regions will increase.

This escalatory scenario places Jordan in a precarious position, facing unprecedented security challenges. These threats differ significantly from previous ones and carry heightened risks of attacks or destabilization along lengthy and complex border regions.

Today, Jordan finds itself confronting new security imperatives unlike anything it has previously experienced. These escalating threats, potentially prolonged, emanate from Syria’s northern border and could extend to its eastern border with Iraq. In this context, Jordan’s top priority must be ensuring a “safe passage” through this volatile phase. To navigate these risks, Jordan must adopt a comprehensive security strategy that balances safeguarding its external borders with containing potential internal threats. Additionally, the possibility of sudden escalations driven by warring militias cannot be ruled out, necessitating advanced preparedness to manage external dangers and maintain internal stability.