Scenarios for the reignition of the war on Gaza

Furthermore, these attacks demonstrate Israel's strategy of withdrawing from the political process and ongoing negotiations, using military force to achieve its political and security objectives, undermining international efforts to achieve peace and further entrenching the conflict rather than resolving it.

Current events are prompting the international community to intervene in search of diplomatic solutions to mitigate the conflict. In this context, several possible scenarios for the development of the situation emerge, each reflecting different challenges and opportunities for the parties involved and indicating a set of conditions necessary for achieving stability or escalating military action. 

The first scenario, which entails a comprehensive Israeli airstrike on Gaza to eliminate the military capabilities of Hamas and other armed groups, could be significantly influenced by domestic political developments in Israel and international positions, particularly those of the United States. The recent dismissal of the Shin Bet chief has also led to significant internal tensions in Israel, potentially impacting the stability of the security leadership and increasing domestic pressure to take action to evade the demands of the Israeli movement's rejection of the continuation of the military operation and its attempt to cover up the internal political failures that led to the war on Gaza. Furthermore, Trump's statements urging "to make hell in Gaza" contribute to escalating public opinion and strengthening international support for a strong Israeli response, particularly from the United States.

These domestic and international factors increase the likelihood of Israel carrying out a large-scale attack on Gaza, as the Israeli government sees a military response to restore confidence in its security capabilities and its image among its citizens and the world. All of this makes the first scenario more likely to materialize, given the continued escalation of rocket attacks and the impact of these political and security dynamics.

The second scenario reflects a limited renewal of the conflict between Israel and Gaza, with Israel carrying out limited targeting operations against sites in Gaza. These operations may be a strategy to divert attention from the domestic political crises facing prime minister Netanyahu, including tensions within his coalition and the potential risk of the government's collapse. These operations also come amid Netanyahu's corruption and other corruption trials. The conditions for this scenario include continued political crises and increased pressure on Netanyahu to demonstrate strength and resolve in foreign policy, leading to limited operations to reassert Israeli military control and capability.

The chances of this scenario being realised are relatively high, given the urgent need for Netanyahu and his government to overcome internal criticism and maintain government stability. These pressures may prompt military decisions aimed at bolstering his political image both domestically and internationally.

The third scenario involves Egyptian-Qatari or international mediation aimed at achieving a long-term truce between Hamas and Israel. In this scenario, international parties play a crucial role in facilitating negotiations between the two sides, potentially leading to an easing of the blockade on Gaza in exchange for Hamas pledges to cease military operations against Israel. The conditions for this scenario to materialise require sustained and intense international pressure to push both sides towards a political settlement, as well as Hamas's willingness to negotiate directly or indirectly with Israel. The chances of this scenario coming true remain low due to significant challenges, including political and ideological obstacles, and doubts about the parties' commitment to the agreements. Reaching this truce requires significant concessions from both sides and international guarantees that help maintain the continuity and effectiveness of the agreement.

Every scenario for the conflict between Israel and Gaza is deeply influenced by a complex set of regional and international factors, including Israeli domestic politics and the diplomatic moves of the United Nations and major powers such as the United States and the European Union. The complex dynamics of this conflict also include Iranian influence in the region, which plays a major role in supporting armed groups such as the Houthis and Hezbollah, making a peaceful settlement even more difficult.

The political climate within Israel, particularly the extreme polarisation and the challenges the prime minister faces in forming a stable government, also significantly impacts foreign policy, including the approach to Gaza. On the other hand, the United Nations and major powers seek to mediate the conflict and offer diplomatic solutions aimed at reducing tensions, but the success of these efforts is often hampered by challenges on the ground and political tensions.

In this context, the prospects remain volatile and dependent on potentially unforeseen developments, as any change in political or military leadership, or a sudden escalation, could lead to radical changes in the balance of power and the strategies pursued.

Hasan Dajah is professor of strategic studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University