Nothing good will come from Israel’s Gaza/Lebanon wars

The suggestion from US, Israeli and other policymakers that the devastating blows Israel has dealt to Hizbollah and Lebanon have created “an opportunity to put Lebanon on a better path” is galling.

First, it is horribly insensitive, with thousands dead, major sections of Beirut destroyed, and one-quarter of Lebanon’s people internally displaced without adequate shelter, food and services. Suggesting that good can come from enormous human tragedy is disgraceful.

This dangerously naive mindset also ignores history’s lessons. Similar nightmares of 1982 or 2006 involving Israel’s overwhelming use of force were also called “opportunities”, with Israel saying its “enemies would be vanquished ushering in a new day”. In the end, each resulted in a more unsettled situation with a more virulent foe ascendent. The root of these conflicts were real grievances born of injustice that gave rise to resistance movements. Instead of addressing these grievances, Israel, with full-throated US support, saw force as the only acceptable solution, in effect saying: “Once we punish and pound them into submission, all will be well.” This approach has not worked before and will not now.

At the heart of these grievances is the historical injustice done to the Palestinian people. Former president Clinton described it eloquently to a group of Palestinian leaders as a history of having been dismembered, dispossessed and dispersed among the nations. For the Lebanese who have embraced Hizbollah, the grievances include abiding fury over Israel’s decades-long hostile occupation of the south of Lebanon that resulted in displacement of tens of thousands of Lebanese, and historical inequities experienced by the Shite community because of the country’s sectarian system of governance.

This is not to say that Palestinian militia groups or the Shia’s Hizbollah movement have not made grave errors in acting to address their constituencies’ grievances. But the effort to violently eliminate these groups is shortsighted, at best, and no solution, failing to address the grievances’ source that makes them appealing in the first place. It is a recipe for disaster. Ignoring Israel’s responsibility for actions creating the pain at the heart of the problem and refusing to press them to change direction ensures that the grievances metastasize into ever-more virulent forms.

In an effort to totally eliminate resistance to their occupation and annexation of Palestine, Israel is committing genocide in Gaza coupled with a reign of violent terror across the West Bank. Meanwhile with Hizbollah launching missiles into Israel to back the survival of its “resistance ally” in Palestine, Israel has turned its attention to methodically eliminating Hizbollah’s leadership and cadre.

In Lebanon and Gaza, Israel is pursuing “total victory” without regard for civilian casualties or damage to the broader society and infrastructure. Seeing Iran as the main backer of Hizbollah and Hamas, Israel has attacked Iranian sites and assassinated Iranian allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iran itself, bringing the Middle East to the brink of a devastating regional war.

While the US worries aloud about the dangers of expanding war, it’s done nothing to restrain Israel’s behaviour. We have established red lines that Israel continues to cross; expressed concern with civilian casualties which Israel ignores; and put forward ceasefire proposals which Israel rejects. Meanwhile, we flood Israel with sophisticated deadly weaponry and unlimited diplomatic support, resulting in Israeli impunity, more Arab casualties and suffering, and a region further from addressing the roots of conflict. When the fighting ends, if anything, the grievances will have grown.

If history is prologue, the coming years will bring: the emergence of Hamas 2.0; a reconstituted movement of Lebanese with bitterness toward Israel and those whom they feel betrayed them; a bottomless well of anger and resentment directed at Israel and the US; and a region even more unstable.

There is no opportunity in this tragedy. The only certainty is that Israel’s war in Lebanon and Gaza will not end well.

Instead of naive fantasies about opportunities, the only logical step forward is ending this conflict now. The US must tell Israel to stop and back it up by suspending arms shipments. We must address the human cost and work to alleviate some of the suffering. Then, and only then, can we assess the steps needed to deal with the grievances at the root of this tragedy. That is not an opportunity. It is a responsibility.

The writer is president of the Washington-based Arab American Institute