Netanyahu faces mounting pressure as Gaza ceasefire holds, hostage negotiations continue

The appearance of fighters sporting face masks and the green headband band of Hamas during Sunday’s hand-over of three Israeli women hostages out of 98 women, men and child captives served as a reminder that the movement has not been eliminated. Furthermore, Israeli commentator Gershon Baskin pointed out, ironically, that "we need Hamas to continue to control Gaza, at least until the last of the hostages is released." He also urged all parties to speed up hostage exchanges for Palestinian prisoners as the protracted programme could be disrupted and put Israeli hostage lives in danger.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to achieve his primary Gaza war objective by military means. Former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has admitted the Hamas military wing has recruited as many fighters as had been killed since its October 2023 attack on Israel. The Israeli army's latest figure for Hamas and Islamic Jihad fatalities was 17,000-20,000 out of a pre-war combined troop strength of 20,000-23,000. However, the independent monitoring group Armed Conflict Location and Event Data cited reports from the Israeli army suggesting 8,500 deaths, a figure halving the initial claim. This includes members of other armed groups and non-combatant members of Hamas.

Before the war, the Hamas military arm had command and control, short-range rockets, medium level weaponry and trained fighters. As a result of Israel's systematic degradation, this small state regular army has been transformed into a guerrilla force provided with light weapons. It operates in independent cells without a central command and secure communications.

While Hamas and Islamic Jihad may have recouped their troop strength, it is likely that recruits are raw youths rather than tough street fighters. It takes time to train and ready them for the inevitable battle with the Israeli army in coming months or years unless the "Palestine Problem" is resolved with the emergence of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank with East Jerusalem as its capital. Although the "two-state solution" involving the creation a Palestinian state alongside Israel is supported by the UN and the international community, Israel has pre-empted and blocked this possibility by colonising the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

While Hamas' military wing has survived in a weakened state, its administration in Gaza may be unable to function fully. In addition to 91 per cent displacement of the population and massive devastation of the strip, its inhabitants must cope with criminal gangs. While they have stolen quantities of urgently need food, water, medicine and fuel that enter Gaza, this is expected to diminish under the ceasefire as large quantities bring down the price of loot and police can return to their jobs without being sniped by Israeli troops.

Popular support for Hamas has "significantly declined" since its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel which has brought down brutal retribution on Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank. However, a September poll by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, 36 per cent of Palestinians across the occupied territories support Hamas, compared to 21 per cent for Fatah headed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Due to domestic and international pressure Netanyahu has been compelled to abjure military means and resort to mediated Egyptian-Qatari-US negotiations to secure the rest of Israel's remaining hostages held by Hamas. In November 2023, 105 hostages were freed in exchange for Palestinian prisoners during the first week-long ceasefire and four were freed unilaterally by Hamas in June 2024, six were killed in an Israeli rescue bid in September 2024, three escaping soldiers were shot by Israeli soldiers, and two bodies were recently found in a tunnel.

Netanyahu has also, reluctantly, agreed to a 42-day ceasefire which could be made permanent during further ceasefire/hostage negotiations. This is the last thing Netanyahu wants as, once his Gaza war ends, he is certain to be called to account for failing to pre-empt and prevent that attack on southern Israel mounted by Hamas which killed 1,200 and abducted 251, according to Israel. For the first 13 months of the 15-month war, Netanyahu had also managed to avoid testifying in his trial on bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Despite his argument that he was too busy running a war to appear, in December the judges trying his case demanded that he appear and testify.

Finally, Netanyahu has been forced to agree to a high price - the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees - in exchange for Israeli hostages.

Netanyahu's third war aim was to end the exchanges between the Israeli army and Lebanon's Hizbollah in order to return Israelis to northern towns and kibbutzim abandoned during the Gaza war. However, this is unlikely until Israel completely withdraws its troops from southern Lebanon enabling northern Israel to enjoy peace and quiet for some months.

Netanyahu also cannot expect Israelis to return to areas along the border with Gaza until the strip has been pacified by political means and an administration acceptable to alestinians installed. While this is unlikely until Hamas agrees to cede whatever political influence it retains, replacing Hamas with the West Bank Palestinian Authority would be rejected by Gazans who view the Authority as corrupt and compromised due to its co-operation with Israel on West Bank security.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s coalition is at risk. Internal Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir's strong Zion party has resigned, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich left the cabinet and returned to the Knesset as a legislator. This means the coalition has been reduced to 63 out of 120.