American axis without America

It would have been very difficult to predict a day when countries in the region which have been historically aligned with the US would find themselves under greater threat as a result of the ambiguity, confusion and contradictions in US policy around the so-called war on terrorism.

While many countries are upgrading their national security and preparing for regional cross-border terrorism, US policy appears to be indifferent to the current risk of escalation on many fronts. America continues with the tactics of political exploitation, prolonging the crisis and seeking military, economic and political advantage from the troubled scene. 

Questions have been raised about whether this style of war by proxy is designed to weaken the region, especially given the destructive American influence in Ukraine, Syria, Libya and Iraq. The irony today is not in the suspicion of US policy amongst its enemies, but the extent to which suspicion is growing amongst those who are historically, at least, friends of America.

The US president has typically managed the ongoing risks and dangers facing the world by speaking and giving speeches. This “YouTube” strategy of addressing threats and the needs of allies does not inspire confidence amongst friends, or enemies. Philosophical lectures about religion and dialogue in the face of murderous terrorists suggests that America is not interested in any real action against these brutal terrorists.

Recently, an Arab axis was created, ostensibly in order to ensure that the new and reconstituted Egypt does not collapse into chaos. This focused on the priorities of these countries, which believe in rooting out terrorism and restoring stability to the region. At this time, there were several attempts to scuttle Egypt’s relations with Gulf states. 

The strategy amongst proponents of the Turkish-Qatari alliance and the Muslim Brotherhood appears to be that Egypt was far more stable with Gulf support, and restoring Muslim Brotherhood control in Egypt would be much more likely if Egyptian-Gulf relations were in tatters. This is mostly a strategic alliance which makes Libya a major issue for many countries as it continues to be used as a base to destabilise Egypt. 

Libya presents real risks, and doing nothing out of fear that changes there might be used as leverage against Egypt and its political system gives the Muslim Brotherhood power. It assumes that the current situation in Egypt is more chaotic than it really is and supports the assumption that excluding the Muslim Brotherhood results in chaos. 

France and Italy are inextricably invested in the stability of Libya due to their geographic proximity and historical connection. This has encouraged both to approach the issue of Egypt positively as they intimately understand the potential negative consequences on the Mediterranean. 

The turbulence of the current situation might lead to a new coalition of Arab and European countries working together with a common vision to face and address the ongoing crisis. However, in order to face this terrorist risk, some political solutions must be found in the region, especially in Syria.  

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