At a crossroads: Iran weighs its options after Haniyeh assassination

As the Middle East braces for an anticipated Iranian response to Israel following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the region has entered an unprecedented state of alert. Intense diplomatic efforts are under way to manage Iran's expected retaliation, while clear warnings are being sent to Tehran that any large-scale Iranian attack could trigger a broad Israeli military response, backed by the United States.

In a swift and strategic move, the US has deployed an unconventional military arsenal to the region, signalling to Iran that its response to any Iranian retaliation should be of utmost concern. This has placed significant constraints on Tehran’s potential courses of action. The strike on Tehran was deeply rooted in intelligence and any symbolic military response from Iran would fall short of addressing the magnitude of the incident. Even a limited traditional military response could provide Israel with the justification to escalate further, potentially dragging the region into a broader conflict with far-reaching consequences.

Iran’s hesitation in deciding how to respond is the result of a complex interplay of internal and external factors. Domestically, new power centers are emerging within Iran that advocate for avoiding actions that could provoke an attack and escalate tensions with global powers. Externally, the seriousness of US actions and Israel’s readiness to engage on multiple fronts, from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran, are key considerations. Hizbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has also sought to justify avoiding a direct confrontation between Iran and Syria at this stage, preferring instead to retaliate against Israel through Hizbollah or allied factions from Yemen to Iraq. Nasrallah has suggested that a delayed response is part of a broader strategy to wear down Israeli security, with the next move potentially surprising but unlikely to drag Iran into a direct conflict with Israel. This approach keeps Lebanon at the forefront of the confrontation with Israel, rather than escalating to a direct Iran-Israel showdown.

While various factors are influencing Iran's potential response, the decisive issue remains the nature of the US military presence and the newfound American willingness to use force openly, which had been absent in recent times. The US military, initially deployed to contain regional escalation and maintain a delicate balance, now appears poised to use power more assertively, directly threatening Iran that an Israeli counterattack could place Iran in a vulnerable position. This has reshaped the current dynamics and forced all involved parties to reassess their strategies.

Recent events seem to be a direct implementation of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech in Congress, where he emphasised the importance of continuing the fight against Hamas. This strategy has manifested in the targeting of Hamas's political bureau chief and the opening of the northern front, keeping it on the brink of escalation. The targeting of a figure like Fuad Shukr in Beirut's southern suburbs and the preparation for a direct confrontation with Iran, evident in the timing of Haniyeh’s assassination on the day of the new Iranian president’s inauguration, could be the only scenario that puts Iran in a highly embarrassing position. Tehran may now be compelled to respond to this significant security breach, especially since it had been preparing to pivot towards reconciliation with the West under its new reformist leadership, a move Netanyahu staunchly opposes, viewing a political settlement between the West and Iran as a greater threat to Israel than a direct confrontation at this stage.

In light of these developments, the region stands at a critical crossroads. The nature of Iran's response and the subsequent actions of the US and Israel will shape the trajectory of the current conflict. If Iran exercises restraint and avoids direct escalation, it may avert a large-scale confrontation while seeking to maximise its political gains. However, the complexities of the regional landscape and the multitude of involved actors and interests make it likely that tensions will remain high, with fronts across the region poised for further escalation, particularly as Israel insists on resolving its outstanding issues with Iran after months of open conflict on multiple fronts.