Regional turmoil gets worse

The recent Israeli attack on Quneitra, in Syria, might be an attempt to preempt a US-Iran agreement.

Some analysts say the Israeli move was anger at the pace of US-Iranian nuclear negotiations.

The incident might also be one of many more to come, due to a confluence of several factors.

The incident comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s struggle with his political opponents is intensifying.

It may in fact be the direct result of the political crisis he is currently facing at home and the international perception of Netanyahu as the main reason for the failure of achieving peace.

At another level, the Hizbollah leader, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, in a recent interview with Al Mayadeen TV, spoke of having 110 rockets and the capacity to capture the Galilee and perhaps more.

This suggests that Hizbollah has shifted its position from defensive to offensive, or at least is considering and capable of doing so, which poses a direct threat to Israel.

Nasrallah’s comments come at an extremely sensitive time and could threaten Netanyahu’s political future, especially given that one of his greatest political assets is his tough stance on security.

He recently gave a speech in Paris after the terrorist attacks there, calling on the Jewish community to return to Israel, boasting of the safety of his country.

The Hizbollah threats place serious doubt in Netanyahu’s security policy.

Hizbollah recognises that Netanyahu is now vulnerable politically, due to the opposition groups.

It also recognises that its actions and comments are reported widely in Israel, and that gives it leverage and influence in such a finely balanced political atmosphere, and just before the Israeli legislative elections, slated for mid-March.

Regional crises seem to metamorphose constantly. Now Israel seems to be in direct contact with Iran, but as it continues to block Iranian diplomatic efforts, this imposes new challenges on Iran and its allies.

The new challenges place a strain on all parties. The region seems incapable of managing new confrontations when the priority is combatting terrorism and devising an effective post-air strike strategy. 

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