Syria faces three main scenarios

Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011, the country has gone through a long period of conflict and tensions that have deeply affected the political, social and economic structure. Considering the continued political and military stagnation, it has become necessary to analyse the Syrian future from the perspective of possible scenarios that may shape the course of events in the coming years. These scenarios can be summarized in three main axes: The first is the management of business by a transitional government that works to prepare the country politically and implement relevant international resolutions; The second is related to the possibility of rejecting the current situation by internal or external parties, which may lead to the renewal of armed conflict. The third is maintaining the status quo for a long period, which puts the country in a state of slow exhaustion without a radical solution.

Scenario one: Management of business by transitional government

This scenario is the most compatible with international resolutions, as it is based on the implementation of Security Council Resolution No. 2254, which calls for the formation of a transitional governing body with full executive powers. This scenario requires consensus among the internal, regional and international parties concerned with the Syrian issue. The success of this path depends largely on the will of the various parties to make real concessions and work towards building trust.

This scenario could open the way for the reconstruction process, the return of refugees, and achieving political and social stability. However, the challenges facing it are enormous, starting with the obstacles of mutual trust between the Syrian parties, all the way to external interference and conflicting interests.

The conditions for achieving the first scenario, where business is managed by a transitional government to implement Security Council Resolution No. 2254 by forming a transitional governing body with full executive powers. Its success also depends on achieving consensus between the internal Syrian parties and the relevant regional and international powers. There must be a political will to make real concessions and build mutual trust. It also requires limiting external interference that hinders understanding and ensuring everyone’s commitment to the political solution.

The chances of achieving this scenario increase in the event of international and regional pressure to support the political process and the willingness of the Syrian parties to accept compromise solutions. Stabilising the security situation and providing international support for reconstruction can be an incentive for everyone to move in this direction. The success of international initiatives in bringing viewpoints closer together may be the decisive factor in overcoming obstacles and achieving this scenario.

If the parties continue to be stubborn and fail to reach compromise solutions, the country may find itself facing a state of armed escalation again. This scenario is fuelled by the continuation of political and sectarian divisions, in addition to the role of regional and international powers that may push towards fueling the conflict to achieve their own agendas. Each group is trying to seize space to establish its own states.

The return of armed conflict may lead to deepening the humanitarian crisis and increasing the number of displaced persons and refugees, in addition to further destroying the infrastructure. The renewal of the conflict will also eliminate any hopes of achieving stability in the near term and will further complicate the Syrian scene.

This scenario may be realised if political and sectarian divisions continue, with the absence of compromise solutions between the conflicting parties. Regional and international powers play a role in fueling the conflict by supporting groups to achieve their own agendas. The weakness of central institutions and the attempts of some groups to establish independent states also increase the chances of conflict. In addition, the deterioration of economic and social conditions and the continuation of humanitarian crises increase the state of internal tension. 

The chances of the second scenario being realised increase if regional conflicts escalate and international peace efforts continue to fail. The deterioration of living conditions and the decline in effective international support also contribute to the aggravation of the situation. The collapse of internal alliances or the return of terrorist groups’ activity could push the country towards a new wave of armed conflict.

The third scenario is to maintain the status quo, where the political and military stalemate continues for a long time without achieving tangible progress towards resolving the crisis. In this scenario, the country may witness continued division between factions and groups seeking to gain geographical control between different regions, with the presence of competing authorities and the control of international and regional powers over some regions.

This scenario carries great risks, as it exacerbates the economic and social suffering of Syrians, opens the way for more foreign interventions, in addition to deepening the internal division. The continuation of the status quo may also lead to the establishment of a state of “no war, no peace”, which makes any future solution more difficult.

The conditions for achieving this scenario are the continuation of the political stalemate because of the intransigence of the conflicting parties and their inability to reach a political consensus supported by the failure of regional and international initiatives to achieve a real breakthrough in the crisis. It also requires a military balance between the forces on the ground, as no party can achieve decisive superiority, with continued external support for the conflicting parties, which enhances the continuation of the conflict without solutions.

On the other hand, the continued geographical division between the different regions contributes to strengthening this scenario, with the competing authorities remaining unable to unify institutions or form a common political entity, in conjunction with external interventions that seek to achieve geopolitical interests at the expense of a comprehensive solution.

The chances of this scenario coming true increase in light of the worsening economic and social crises that weaken any attempts at reconstruction or achieving stability. In addition, the possibility of the status quo remaining increases with some international and regional powers relying on the continuation of the crisis as a means of achieving gains or preventing the dominance of a particular party at the expense of their interests.

Finally: Syria is currently experiencing a critical phase that may determine its future for decades to come.

The three proposed scenarios - running businesses through a transitional government, renewing armed conflict, or maintaining the status quo - reflect the complex challenges facing the country. Each scenario has its pros and cons, but the decisive factor will be the political will of the parties concerned and the ability to transcend narrow interests for the sake of the future of Syria and its people. Ultimately, hope remains pinned on finding a comprehensive political solution that will return the country to the path of development and stability.

Hasan Dajah is professor of strategic studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University