West Bank annexation: A grave threat to peace, security and regional stability

The issue of annexing the West Bank to Israeli sovereignty is one of the most dangerous and controversial issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, due to its political, security and economic repercussions that affect the future of the two-state solution and regional stability.

Some Israeli political parties have repeatedly announced their intention to annex parts of the West Bank, especially the settlement areas and the Jordan Valley, to Israel, which raises regional and international concerns about the future of just peace in the region and the extent to which this approach is compatible with international conventions and peace agreements concluded previously.

The annexation of the West Bank is contrary to international conventions and resolutions of the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations, which emphasise the inadmissibility of occupying the lands of others by force. Security Council Resolution No. 242 issued in 1967 stressed the necessity of the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territories occupied during the June 1967 war, including the West Bank. Many other UN resolutions have affirmed the Palestinians’ right to self-determination and the establishment of their independent state on their occupied territories, making the annexation of the West Bank a clear violation of these resolutions.

Annexation practices fall within clear violations of the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949, which prohibits the occupying state from transferring its population to the occupied territories or making any demographic changes therein, which Israel has been doing for decades by encouraging settlements and transferring large numbers of settlers to the West Bank. Moreover, annexation is a violation of the principle of the right of peoples to self-determination, which is one of the fundamental principles of international law and is the cornerstone of international efforts to achieve peace and security in the Middle East.

In practical terms, the annexation of the West Bank poses a direct threat to existing peace agreements, especially the Oslo Accords signed between the Palestine Liberation Organisation and Israel in 1993, which are considered a basic framework for the two-state solution, as they stipulate the establishment of Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank and Gaza in preparation for reaching a final settlement. Therefore, any move to annex lands from the West Bank would practically undermine this agreement and end the chances of reaching a two-state solution.

The annexation of the West Bank could also negatively affect the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel signed in 1994, known as the “Wadi Araba Agreement.” Jordan considers the stability of the West Bank and the rights of the Palestinian people to be an integral part of its national security, and the Jordanian government has expressed its complete rejection of the Israeli annexation plans. Jordan fears that this move will lead to an escalation of tensions and an increase in population pressures, which could affect Jordan’s internal stability and enhance popular feelings of hostility towards Israel.

The annexation of the West Bank is a threat to the security and stability of the region, as it increases tensions and opens the door to the outbreak of new waves of violence. Annexation could push Palestinian armed factions to escalate their operations against Israel in an attempt to resist this move, and the matter could develop into the outbreak of widespread confrontations that affect civilians and lead to new waves of displacement.

In addition, annexation of the West Bank may push regional countries to take tough stances against Israel, which may further complicate the security situation and weaken opportunities for cooperation between Israel and its neighbors. The international community’s displeasure with the annexation move may lead to increased diplomatic isolation of Israel and lead to the imposition of international sanctions, which would affect the stability of the entire region.

Annexation entails huge economic and social costs. On the one hand, annexation will disrupt the Palestinian economy, which is largely dependent on trade and work inside Israel, which will exacerbate unemployment and poverty rates among Palestinians. It will also increase restrictions on the movement of individuals and goods, which will limit the ability of Palestinians to pursue their economic lives and increase their living suffering.

On the other hand, Israel will face major economic challenges due to its bearing of the costs of administering the occupied territories, providing security for the settlements, and expanding the infrastructure therein. In addition, annexation may lead to a reduction in the amount of international financial support that Israel receives from some countries and organisations, as many of these countries will see annexation of the West Bank as a violation of international conventions, prompting them to reconsider their economic and political support for Israel.

Annexation of the West Bank constitutes a serious violation of human rights, as it will increase the suffering of Palestinians due to the tightening of restrictions on their movement and the confiscation of more of their land for the benefit of settlements. Palestinians suffer from severe restrictions on freedom of movement, work and access to basic services, such as education and health care.

Annexation will also double this suffering, as the lands targeted for annexation will be incorporated under Israeli control, further marginalising Palestinians and exacerbating poverty and deprivation among them. Annexation may also lead to the displacement of thousands of Palestinians from their lands or homes in the areas threatened with annexation, as settlements will expand at the expense of Palestinian population centers. This displacement will constitute a flagrant violation of human rights and will exacerbate the humanitarian situation in the West Bank, and will increase the intensity of the conflict and fuel feelings of injustice and hostility, making the resolution of the conflict more complicated.

Finally, annexation of the West Bank is a real threat not only to the chances of a two-state solution, but also to security and stability in the region as a whole. This step contradicts all international conventions and peace agreements concluded between Israel and the Palestinians and creates obstacles to any future efforts to reach a peaceful and just solution. Achieving a lasting and sustainable peace requires respecting the rights of the Palestinian people and avoiding unilateral measures that exacerbate the conflict.

Hasan Dajah is professor of Strategic Studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University