The regional transformation and Jordan’s strategic dilemma

There is no longer just one dangerous file in front of the "decision-making kitchen" in Amman regarding regional developments; rather, multiple crucial and intertwined issues impact Jordan’s national security and regional role, all of which are of high importance.

In Gaza, there is still concern about Trump’s plan to displace Palestinians and the success of the Arab plan (expected to be approved today in Cairo) in convincing Trump to change his stance. The first wave of Palestinian children suffering from cancer (among the 2,000 children whom King Abdullah promised Trump that Jordan would treat) is expected to arrive in Jordan soon. However, Jordan’s primary focus remains on the West Bank and the alarming developments there, particularly with the Israeli army’s "Iron Wall" operation and the Israeli government’s approval of the "Greater Jerusalem" plan. These Israeli policies ultimately aim to suffocate the Palestinians, eliminate any possibility of establishing a Palestinian state, and seize most of the land there.

Jordanian officials are acutely aware of the severity of the situation in the West Bank and the potential consequences, including optional or forced displacement, or even future pressure from the U.S. administration on Jordan to assume an alternative role in Palestinian cities (commonly referred to as the "Jordanian option") if Israel dismantles or nullifies the Palestinian Authority. However, Jordanian officials find it extremely difficult to answer the crucial question: What is Jordan’s position, and what cards does Jordan have to counter such a scenario?

Some officials insist that Jordan should de-escalate tensions with Israel and avoid confrontation with the right-wing government there, especially under the Trump administration. They argue that Jordan should limit itself to denunciations and rejections—like any other Arab country—of the annexation of the West Bank or developments in Jerusalem. Others advocate for intensifying Jordan’s diplomatic rhetoric and hinting at reconsidering the peace treaty with Israel.

The threat posed by Israeli actions in Syria to Jordan’s national security is no less severe than the situation in the West Bank and Jerusalem. It has become obvious that Benjamin Netanyahu and his government seek to establish a “Druze state” or an emirate in southern Syria, potentially linking it to Their relatives in the occupied Julan Heights . Israeli forces have advanced into southern Syria, seized Mount Hermon, and occupied a vast area of Syrian villages near the border. Netanyahu has openly declared that he will not allow the presence of Syrian government forces in the south, which means there is a significant risk of chaos, internal fragmentation in Syria, or direct Israeli military control over southern regions—bringing Israel directly to Jordan’s northern borders.

The Question Facing Jordanian Decision-Makers: What Should Be Done? Should Jordan passively observe the dangerous developments on its northern border, or should it take preventive measures—perhaps in coordination with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the Syrian government—to thwart Netanyahu’s plan? One option could be deploying Jordanian forces in southern Syria along the border with Israel, thereby weakening Netanyahu’s justifications and increasing Western and U.S. pressure on him to withdraw.

The conservative political camp in Jordan seeks to avoid any involvement in Syria, let alone deploying Jordanian troops. Proponents of this view argue that Jordan should not entangle itself in Syria’s internal conflicts, especially given the uncertainty in the political landscape there. Meanwhile, another perspective holds that Jordan’s inaction in Syria would be a passive stance in the face of real and severe threats along its northern front.

Regarding Iraq and its complexities, many Iraqi Sunni politicians—especially those residing in Amman—urge Jordan to play a more active role in forming a protective umbrella for Iraqi Sunnis and assisting other political forces in reaching political solutions to prevent an American military strike or a U.S.-Iranian confrontation. However, others argue that Jordan’s capacities are limited, and siding with Iraqi Sunnis could escalate tensions with other political factions, dragging Jordan into a diplomatic crisis and rekindling hostilities reminiscent of those following the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003. From this perspective, it would be wiser for Jordan to steer clear of Iraqi conflicts and their negative repercussions.

Ultimately, there is a prevailing belief among Jordanian political elites that the Middle East is undergoing sweeping regional changes that are reshaping the region and redrawing borders. This situation creates significant uncertainty about the future, potentially dismantling existing states while forming new states or entities—what some analysts have dubbed "Sykes-Picot 2."

Within Jordan’s political elite, there are two main approaches:

1. The Conservative Approach: Advocates of this view prioritize protecting Jordan’s sovereignty, borders, and political stability while avoiding regional turmoil. Given Jordan’s small size and limited resources in a volatile and dangerous environment, they argue that preserving stability and securing borders is, in itself, a significant achievement.

2. The Proactive Approach: Proponents of this perspective argue that safeguarding Jordan’s national security and regional role requires a bold and open approach rather than isolation and fear. They contend that Jordan can only secure its northern border by playing a more active role in southern Syria and can only counter the annexation of the West Bank by strengthening its leverage there. This includes direct engagement with Palestinians and undermining Israel’s annexation plans, especially since regional dynamics also affect Jordan’s internal demographic balance. They stress that Jordan cannot afford to be detached from its surroundings or isolate itself from these threats. Instead, Jordan must develop comprehensive plans, scenarios, and preparedness to actively respond to unfolding events.