The impact of Trump's victory on Middle East

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States for a second term is likely to have broad implications for the Middle East in general and Jordan in particular. Trump, who pursued unconventional policies in his first presidential term, has reshaped the role of the United States in the region in a controversial way, leaving a legacy that cannot be ignored. This article attempts to anticipate some of Trump's potential impacts on the Middle East and Jordan in particular, after his victory, with a focus on the aspects of security, economy, and foreign policy.

US Policy towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict during his first term in office, Trump clearly sided with Israel through several controversial decisions, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognising Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. In winning a new term, Trump may continue his pro-Israel policies, and may reinforce his previous orientations regarding the "Deal of the Century" that sparked mixed reactions. For Jordan, this policy poses a challenge, especially in light of the Hashemite guardianship of the holy sites in Jerusalem. This American approach may lead to pressure on Jordan to strengthen its relations with Israel or reconsider its position on the Palestinian issue, which may raise concerns among the Jordanian street and the government alike.

Economic challenges and their impact on Jordan Jordan’s economic stability is a sensitive factor in light of the volatile regional situation. Trump’s economic policies, especially those related to imposing sanctions on Iran, have contributed to destabilising the regional economy and raising energy prices, which has negatively affected the Jordanian economy, which relies heavily on energy imports. The impact of the Corona pandemic on the global economy and its impact on foreign aid also puts Jordan in a sensitive position.

If Trump continues his protectionist economic orientations, Jordan may face greater challenges regarding American aid. His first term witnessed reductions in American aid directed to some countries, and there was a trend towards reducing the volume of foreign aid. If he wins a second term, aid may decline or be linked to political conditions that increase pressure on Jordan and limit its ability to make independent decisions.

Escalation with Iran and its repercussions on the region If the Trump administration pursues a maximum pressure policy against Iran, including imposing harsh economic sanctions and withdrawing from the nuclear agreement. And while Trump is in office, the maximum pressure policy may escalate, increasing the chances of armed conflict between the United States and Iran or between Iran and US allies in the region, such as Israel.

This scenario poses a major challenge to Jordan, given its geographical location close to potential conflict zones. Although Jordan has maintained a balanced stance in its foreign policy towards Iran, the outbreak of a regional conflict could negatively impact its stability and internal security, especially with the increasing number of refugees and the economic and security pressures that may result from any armed conflict in the region.

The impact of US relations with the Arabian Gulf

The Arabian Gulf is a major partner for Jordan, as the Gulf states provide significant financial assistance and job opportunities for many Jordanians. During his first term in office, Trump strengthened the US alliance with the Gulf states, especially in confronting Iran. Strong relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE have prompted him to take more hawkish positions on regional issues.

In his second term, the United States may continue to strengthen its relations with the Gulf states, which may contribute to achieving relative stability in the Gulf region, which may be in Jordan’s interest.

Implications for Jordanian-American relations The United States is one of Jordan’s largest donors, providing ongoing military and economic support. In his first term, Trump showed a willingness to cooperate with Jordan, but he did not prioritize Jordan within his policies in the region, perhaps due to his greater focus on Israel and the Gulf states.

In Trump’s second term, Jordanian-American relations may face some challenges, especially if Trump decides to restructure the distribution of aid or focus on other alliances. Political pressure may also increase on Jordan to adopt positions consistent with American policy, which may be difficult for Jordan to do given the complexities of its internal and external situation. 

Impact on the Jordanian street

Trump’s continued presidency of the United States may raise concerns in the Jordanian street, especially in light of the popular sensitivity towards the Palestinian issue. Trump’s policies towards Israel and Iran are likely to increase tension in the region, which may affect the popular mood in Jordan and lead to protests or demands to change some policies. 

Finally: Trump’s victory for a second term may have profound and diverse effects on Jordan, presenting it with new challenges and opportunities.

Hasan Dajah professor of strategic studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University