Scenarios for the end of the Israeli war on Gaza

We can anticipate the future situation of the Israeli war on Gaza through the following scenarios that reflect the different possibilities for the end of the conflict. These scenarios include a comprehensive diplomatic solution, temporary calm, humanitarian truces and finally military escalation. Each scenario depends on a set of conditions and opportunities for its realisation, which helps us understand possible courses of events.

The first scenario is the comprehensive diplomatic solution: the parties seek to reach peace, security and stability in the region. Therefore, the comprehensive diplomatic solution to the conflict in Gaza requires effective international intervention, security guarantees, and concessions from both parties, which provides great opportunities to achieve lasting stability. This scenario includes international and regional interventions to support agreements and improve humanitarian conditions. The opportunity lies in creating a cooperative environment instead of hostility, which contributes to the reconstruction of Gaza and enhancing stability, and is considered more sustainable thanks to international support and the desire to end the conflict, and begin final solution negotiations.

Conditions for verification: This scenario requires serious intervention by the international community to impose a ceasefire and work to hold direct negotiations between the two parties. Israel and Hamas must also make tangible concessions, such as easing the siege on Gaza and stopping rocket attacks.

At the same time, providing security guarantees to both parties through international forces and monitoring mechanisms to ensure the implementation of the agreements. It also requires support from Arab and European countries and the United States to ensure the sustainability of the solution and provide humanitarian and economic aid for the reconstruction of Gaza.

The chances of this scenario being achieved are to achieve stability, as this scenario is considered the most sustainable because it addresses the roots of the conflict and creates an environment of cooperation instead of hostility. It also requires great international attention to end the conflict and achieve stability in the region, which enhances the chances of success of this scenario.

In addition to reconstruction and development, it could lead to improved living conditions in Gaza, enhancing the local population’s acceptance of any settlement.

The second scenario: Temporary calm and humanitarian truces: In this scenario, the parties seek to achieve relative stability through short-term truces, mediated by regional forces, that allow humanitarian aid to arrive and alleviate the suffering of the people of Gaza. This requires continued international pressure on the conflicting parties to extend these truces and turn them into long-term calm. This scenario provides temporary relief and helps open channels of dialogue, which may pave the way for sustainable solutions in the future.

This scenario is achieved through the following conditions: A temporary humanitarian truce is agreed upon to enable the arrival of humanitarian aid and the evacuation of the wounded and civilians, and countries such as Egypt and Qatar play a role as mediators to reach short-term truce agreements.

Improving the humanitarian conditions in Gaza by allowing the entry of basic materials and goods is also required, with continued international pressure on both parties to extend the truces and turn them into a long-term calm.

The chances of success in this scenario are achieving a short-term truce. This scenario allows the intensity of the conflict to be reduced in the short term, which reduces human and material losses. It also alleviates the humanitarian crisis and helps achieve humanitarian truces that may provide some relief to the residents of Gaza and alleviate their daily suffering. This calm could be a prelude to opening broader channels of dialogue between the two parties, paving the way for a longer-term solution.

Third scenario: Military escalation: In this scenario, the situation worsens because of the failure of negotiations and the continuation of mutual attacks between Israel and Hamas. This scenario leads to mass destruction and great human suffering, with increasing military operations and negative regional interventions further complicating the situation. Escalation deepens the hostility between the two parties and reduces the chances of reaching future peaceful solutions. External interventions may increase, further complicating the crisis and further deteriorating the humanitarian situation.

Among the conditions for achieving this scenario are: The lack of progress in the negotiations, the two parties continuing to adhere to their positions without making concessions, the increase in military operations, the continued pace of missile attacks from Gaza, and the increasingly frequent Israeli air strikes.

Negative regional movements and international interventions further complicate the situation, such as more military and political support for Israel, which leads to escalation of tensions with neighboring countries.

The collapse and deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Gaza has also caused pressure on the parties to escalate rather than calm down.

The chances of this scenario coming true are: Total destruction. This scenario leads to more destruction and suffering for both parties, which further complicates the situation. Fueling hostility leads to escalation and deepening hostility between the two sides and reduces the chances of reaching peaceful solutions in the future.

In addition to external interference, it may lead to further military escalation and greater intervention by international and regional parties, whether with military support or diplomatic pressure, which increases the complexity of the crisis.

Evaluating opportunities and conditions: The three scenarios show clear variations in the opportunities and conditions needed to achieve each. A comprehensive diplomatic solution is the most sustainable scenario, but it requires strong political will, intense international cooperation, and recognition of the Palestinian right to establish its independent, sovereign state.

Achieving any of these scenarios depends on a complex set of local, regional and international factors, in addition to the political will of the parties concerned. It is important that the international community continues to put pressure on both sides to reach peaceful and sustainable solutions and achieve stability and security in the region.

The author suggests the second scenario, i.e. temporary calm and humanitarian cease-fires may provide short-term solutions, but they remain fragile and subject to collapse at any moment. As for military escalation, it is the most dangerous scenario, as it leads to more suffering and destruction without a radical solution to the conflict.

Hasan Dajah is professor of strategic studies at Al Hussein Bin Talal University